How Long Could You Live Without the Internet?
The internet has been continuously available for approximately 30 years. While this might appear to be a long duration, across the span of human history, or even a single lifetime, it is barely a blip. Given the significant enhancements the internet has brought to our personal and professional lives, we tend to believe it will remain always accessible and on-demand. However, is this belief a risky assumption?
Today, it's difficult to imagine life without electricity or the internet. Generation X is likely the last generation to remember a time before the internet. Generation Z and those younger have always lived in the 'cloud' and can only imagine what life was like before the internet or smartphones. We collectively assume that internet stability will persist indefinitely and that history won't reverse or throw up some black swans. So, we should not assume that the internet will always be available.
Therefore, I ponder what life without the internet might look like, not as an objective, but as a useful thought experiment. Is it even feasible to live without the internet now? How long could we manage without access to our data stored in the cloud? I don't foresee a scenario where the internet is permanently unavailable, but it's entirely possible to experience an unexpected, prolonged internet outage of uncertain length. So, I ask, 'How long could we endure without the internet, and what would be the consequences?'
Effective disaster management and recovery strategies advise us to plan and prepare for high-impact events. As unpredictable incidents become more frequent, although unlikely, it is not beyond the realm of possibility for one of the following events to occur on a national or international level.
What if a bushfire or attack destroys or disables a data centre?
What if undersea internet cables are cut in a geo-political conflict?
What if we reach the point of peak electricity where blackouts become regular and frequent?
What if AI decided it was going to turn off the internet for humans in selected regions?
What if a Cyber Attack erases your online records permanently during an internet outage?
What if a trade war bans technology access to certain sanctioned countries?
None of these scenarios are beyond the realm of possibility and they will affect internet access to certain degrees. However, outside the 'prepper community', I haven't observed futurists or technologists discussing the importance of preparing for broad internet outages. So today, I intend to pose the question and use game theory to explore some potential outcomes.
It's important to note that there are tribes and communities in Africa, Asia, and South America who currently live without internet access. For them, nothing would change. However, in the West and developing nations, the internet has become so ingrained in our society, lives, and businesses that non-internet alternatives have largely vanished in many cases. Let's examine the reliance on the internet in the following contexts.
Payments (Wages, Banks, Cash, Transactions)
Government Services
Education and Work
Transport
Food
Communication
Business-2-Business (B2B)
The Vulnerabilities
Payments
Cash transactions have now dropped to under 11%. Paper checks have become obsolete. Employees receive their salaries electronically in their bank accounts and settle their bills using direct debits and BPay, all of which depend on the internet. This shift has occurred even before digital currencies are fully implemented. If the internet fails, purchasing a coffee at your local café will be the least of your concerns. Having a cash reserve can be helpful, as long as retailers still accept cash. However, if the internet outage extends beyond a day, the inability to conduct transactions will escalate rapidly.
Government
State and federal governments have digitalized numerous services. When the internet is operational, these online processes significantly enhance efficiency. However, if the internet is down and you cannot access your digital license, will you be able to prove your identity or verify your authenticity to regain access to government support services?
Education and Work
Our study primarily utilizes LMS (Learning Management Systems) and our tasks are managed through CRMs (Client Management Systems). Most of these systems are cloud-based, meaning our performance relies on continuous connectivity. If you cannot access your data from home or the office because it is stored overseas and unavailable, does this completely hinder your ability to operate?
Transport
Think about your own 15-minute city. If your nearby train station is unable to schedule trains, the network might fail. If your electric vehicle can't charge or the local petrol station is out of fuel, how far are you able to walk or cycle? If the bus doesn't arrive because it can't refuel, what will you do? Living locally might not pose an issue. However, if you need to travel more than a few kilometers to see family or commute to work, immobilized transport systems could leave you isolated.
Food:
Our food doesn't come from Coles or Woolies, nor do Uber Eats and Grub Hub produce it. Disruptions in diesel fuel or fertilizer supplies can significantly affect farmers and the production and distribution of food. On average, a banana travels more than 1,600 kilometers before reaching the consumer, highlighting that most food production isn't local. This presents a considerable risk if there is a prolonged shortage of power, energy, or internet, which could diminish the food supply. The idea of empty shelves is a real consideration in risk management planning.
Communication:
Smartphones have revolutionized our lives to the point where our communication methods have drastically evolved. It's not only emails; texts, DMs, and notifications have become the standard ways we connect. If one or more of these channels suddenly become unavailable, can we turn to other options? Have we honed the ability to use a landline phone or initiate a meaningful conversation with someone we don't know? Are we capable of operating a conventional radio or crafting a handwritten formal letter?
B2B:
Communication between businesses is now predominantly digital. The internet has revolutionized entire business operations and economies. Almost every product we purchase involves numerous businesses within the supply chain. If these businesses are unable to communicate effectively, the availability of goods will be disrupted. A chain is only as strong as its weakest link.
The Solution
The key is not to overhaul your life to eliminate the internet, but to think about setting potential limits on technology access and creating backups so that any interruption in internet service isn't critical. This approach isn't anti-technology but rather prudent disaster recovery planning.
Do not fear the prepper label but embrace it as sound risk management planning. At a personal level, sound planning make look like the following:
Payments: Have a physical store of cash notes or other small tradable items. Easily recognised and valued collectable stamps and coins are best for bartering and trade. Keep a regular off-line copy of your bank balance and mortgage statements.
Government Services: Maintaining physical plastic licence cards and offline files of scanned ID and personal documents including birth certificates, passport tax returns, wills, and bank statements. Store these on offline devices like USB sticks or external hard drives.
Education and Work: Maintain offline files of key documents, certificates, resumes, project plans, process guides, client phone numbers etc. Being able to access your reports and key work items and communicate with clients outside of email is a useful back-up.
Transport: A bicycle is the most efficient form of transport. Cycling has good health benefits and is also a clean and reliable mode of transport. Consider baskets or saddle bags to carry goods more easily.
Food: Learn to grow some of your own food. Even one or two raised vegetable beds can supplement the grocery store if food supply lines are disrupted. If power goes out, fill up your bathtub with clean water. Water treatment plants may not be operable if systems stay down.
Communication: Get to know your neighbours. Build a community beyond your social network. Embrace face to face relationships. Letters through Australia Post are not dead yet.
B2B: Develop and maintain a back-up of employee and client record, annual reports and financial statements. If a crisis or disaster strikes, you will want a way to communicate with your customers and suppliers about your status and contingency plans. This will not only give your client's confidence but will also help your business bounce back more quickly.
The Australian Computer Society Foundation, by its charter, promotes the importance of technology as a career enabler. However, this stance is not taken in isolation. Thoughtful planning acknowledges that 30 years of history is insufficient to confirm the permanence of the pervasive internet. Savvy technology professionals appropriately incorporate Disaster Planning and Recovery Services into their IT documentation. Similarly, it would be wise for individuals to consider developing a comparable plan for themselves personally.
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